Step back from the ledge about this Michigan football team

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I hate Iowa. I've always hated Iowa. In 2002 I was on the field at Michigan Stadium as a sports reported when the Hawkeyes waltzed into Ann Arbor and beat Michigan 34-9. It was one of the most somber moods I've ever experienced at a Michigan game. 

The Rich Rod and Hoke Era wasn't kind to that sensibility either. It's been more than a decade since Michigan beat the Hawkeyes in Iowa City and the losses there have all been painful, not the least of which being the most recent one, 14-13 on Saturday night. 

For the life of me, I couldn't tell you what offense Michigan was running in that game. They didn't even start running the ball effectively until the fourth quarter and they were still being "cute" with it, running toss plays and trying to do everything to get yards except run between the tackles. It was a night filled with failed flea flickers, overthrown passes, receivers that couldn't catch a cold, and offensive line that truly looked offensive a number of times. 

It wasn't all on the players though, the coaches called some ridiculousness all night. This was anything but the "manball" that we have all been looking for and have seen several times this season against lesser opponents. This was unfocused, undisciplined chaos and it was by far Michigan's worst effort of the year. Under no circumstances did they deserve to win that game, regardless of the officials calling bogus facemasks and ejecting anyone for targeting. From top to bottom, coaches to players, it was a horrible effort. No question about that. 

All of that being said, if you're a Michigan fan ready to take a cold plunge deep into the recesses of a Great Lake over this, you need to calm the hell down. As bad as this loss was, and it was BAD, it doesn't change anything except a shot at being undefeated. That's gone now, but how realistic was that in the first place? After all, each of Alabama's last three national championships were won by one-loss teams and the Big Ten Championship game has never been won by an undefeated squad. Yes Michigan and Ohio State were undefeated in conference play when they won it in 2013 and 2014, but the Spartans lost to Notre Dame and the Buckeyes lost to Virginia Tech at home in those years. Going undefeated in FBS play is HARD TO DO. If Alabama does it this year it will be only the second time they have done it in the Nick Saban era and first time since 2009. 

So Michigan is 9-1 now, and as much as you have fans essentially proclaiming the season over now, that is simply not the case. Games against Indiana at home and Ohio State on the road are still to be played and losing this game to the idiot Hawkeyes doesn't mean that they won't win either of those games. I mean you can choose to be negative and believe that to be the case, but that doesn't make you right about it. 

The plain truth is that if Michigan wins out, they will win the Big Ten East and go to Indy, the same as Michigan State did last season when they lost a late game in the year at night to Nebraska on the road before beating OSU and Penn State to end the regular season en route to winning its second Big Ten title in three years. If they could absorb a late loss in the conference on the road at night, surely Michigan can. 

Now we will get to see if they are truly capable of it. For a team that really hadn't been tested by most anyone on their schedule save for Wisconsin, the Iowa game serves as a true wake-up call to the Wolverines now. They did not come with their best effort on the road against a team hungry for a win to salvage their season and they paid the price for it. Now they will face real adversity this season in the wake of an embarrassing performance on national television in primetime and we will see if they use that as motivation to rise to the challenge and play their best football for the rest of the season. If they do that, they will be playing for the Big Ten championship and a playoff spot. If they don't, then just like the Iowa game, they will have no one to blame for it but themselves. They still hold their destiny and their goals in their hands without a need of help from anyone else. Instead of writing them off in Columbus already because of this loss, maybe we should watch and see if they respond? Perhaps not jump to conclusions about how good this team really is? 

Not that any of what I just said will stop people from making those assumptions about Michigan football this year. I just certainly won't be one of them, no matter how much Iowa infuriates me on a constant basis. 

Why Michigan being ranked THIRD in the CFP rankings is a GREAT thing

The first College Football Playoff rankings came out on ESPN and it was pretty predictable. Two SEC teams, Clemson and Michigan with Pac-12 leader Washington and Ohio State trailing behind. 

I'll admit, my first instinct was to get annoyed at Clemson being ahead of Michigan. I've watched both teams this year and I'm personally not that sold on the Tigers this season, not nearly as much as last year. Deshaun Watson is one of the best QB's in the country if not THE best this season, but the close calls against Troy and North Carolina State are what give me pause. A shanked field goal as time expired may very well have saved their season and that's a hell of a tightrope to walk. Granted, the Louisville win is strong and likely the biggest reason for their strength of schedule being higher, but I think Michigan's defense would give Clemson some problems up front and I don't think the Tigers' 11th ranked defense would hold Michigan to 17 points or less. 

All of that being said, it's all conjecture and it doesn't matter. What DOES matter is that in Year 2 of the Jim Harbaugh era, he's got Michigan ranked in the CFP for the first time ever, with a team still largely comprised of senior leadership from players he didn't recruit himself, but through his coaching and that of his staff have gotten the most out of a talented group that just two years ago weren't playing in a system to reach their full potential, but now are playing sky high and aiming for the big prizes. 

So in looking at the first CFP rankings it was obvious that defending national champion and NCAA juggernaut Alabama would be No. 1, and they'll likely stay there for the rest of the regular season into the start of the playoffs. Clemson and Michigan following them up was to be expected as well, but the true surprise might be Texas A&M at 7-1 jumping undefeated Washington to be No. 4. Again, that's a strength of schedule argument and A&M playing in the SEC against some of the perceived top teams in the country helps them, especially since that one loss the Aggies have is to No. 1 Alabama. 

As far as Michigan goes, there's a lot to like about being 3rd in the CFP at this point. It is only the first ranking on November 1, so there's a whole month or so of football to be played that can and will change things. This is just the starting off point, but even at that it's a great starting off point for Michigan because it doesn't change their objectives, which is to win out and claim the Big Ten title. Now we know with a virtual certainty that sitting at No. 3 to start, achieving those goals would certainly put them in the playoff. 

On top of that, assuming that Michigan, Clemson and Alabama all win out, we would be looking at a Michigan-Clemson matchup in the first round of the CFP, which would give the Wolverines a chance to prove on the field if they are better than Clemson or not. There's a lot of football left to be played between now and then, but it's still a solid projection. 

Michigan hosts Maryland this week, which has former Michigan defensive coordinator DJ Durkin at the helm of a program looking to make a good bowl game. With Perry Hills at QB, that game won't quite go the way of last season's 28-0 shutout, but it's still a game that the Wolverines should win at home, just as they should win at Iowa the following weekend, even though it's a night game at a tough venue in Kinnick Stadium. You get past those teams and then it's Indiana at home one week before "The Game" against an Ohio State team that has had their struggles and got tagged by Penn State a few weeks ago. They'll be taking aim at the rest of their schedule as well and gunning for Michigan's playoff spot without question. 

If Michigan can win the next four games and claim the Big Ten East Division, they'll go to Indianapolis for the first time in school history for The Big Ten Championship Game against the West Division winner, which is very much up for grabs this year. Nebraska leads the pack at 7-1 and 4-1 in the conference but Wisconsin, the team that just beat the Cornhuskers in overtime are tied with Minnesota at 6-2 overall, 3-2 in the Big Ten. Iowa and Northwestern are also 3-2 in the conference but are 5-3 and 4-4 overall respectively. 

So we could be looking at Michigan playing Nebraska or Wisconsin in a rematch for the conference championship, and if the Wolverines can take home that prize they'll be set for an almost certain matchup with Clemson in the playoff. Of course, to get there they must take care of business against the rest of their regular season opponents, starting with Maryland. 

I still can't believe that we're talking about this legitimately in only Year 2 of the Harbaugh Era. The fun for us Michigan fans is truly just beginning. 

GO BLUE!

The case for Michigan being better than Ohio State

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The Michigan defensive front anchored by seniors Ryan Glasgow and Taco Charlton are 3rd in the nation with 20 sacks this season, only one behind the co-leaders Washington and the Ohio University Bobcats. 

I watched The Final Drive on Big Ten Network after last Saturday's slate of games had ended, the last one I watched being Indiana's stunning 24-21 overtime win over Michigan State in Bloomington. The lead story of the day was as it should have been for the Big Ten, the 4th ranked team in the nation, Michigan hosting 8th ranked Wisconsin.

Now to be fair, there aren't a whole lot of highlights you can show from a 14-7 game. A grand total of three touchdowns were scored for four quarters of football, which is part of the reason why I saw someone on Facebook call it "two laughably pathetic teams exposing themselves." Right. In a Top 10 matchup. God forbid anyone play great defense anymore. If it's not a spread offense shootout that's at least into the 30's in terms of points scored, people think it's bad football. Whatever, I digress. 

At the end of The Final Drive the question posed was simple: Who has the better defense in the Big Ten? Michigan, or Ohio State? I don't know how they conduct their quick poll on the Internet but the "audience" voted Michigan barely at 51 percent to 49 percent for the Buckeyes, despite the fact that both analysts on the show, Howard Griffith and Stanley Jackson gave the edge to Ohio State. In Jackson's defense, he did say "slight" edge. 

The thing is, there is a benefit of the doubt that the Buckeyes have been getting all season that almost no one is willing to give Michigan for the same things and that is......disappointing. It's not surprising, it's not even frustrating at this point, it's just disappointing. 

Both teams are in the Top 5 right now, Ohio State sitting just behind Alabama at #2 and Michigan sitting at #4. Since Week 3, Michigan has seen two ACC teams, Louisville and Clemson, jump them for that #3 spot, while Ohio State holds a tight grip on #2, waiting for a hopeful Alabama loss to shake things up even more. 

This is all AP and Coaches Poll though, which really only means anything for conversation and that's it. When the first CFB rankings come out in a matter of weeks, that will be what counts as far as any rankings or seedings go, but for now it's interesting to see where people are seeing these teams at in relation to others and the perception out there right now is that Ohio State is the class of college football, in a stratosphere that no one else even comes close to with the exception of Alabama, who I'm sure is still reminded of that CFB loss to Urban Meyer's Buckeyes two years ago. 

Mike Weber leads all Ohio State running backs with 495 yards rushing on the season. 

I mean, it's not like the Buckeyes don't deserve praise. They average 57 points a game, they've given up the least amount of yards and points per game in the country, and they have been flat out dominant this season against each of their first four opponents. When you beat teams by an average margin of 47.7 points, you deserve to be applauded for that, no question. 

So does Michigan, who averages 44.4 points a game and gives up a mere field goal more on average than Ohio State does, with a 32-point average margin of victory over their first five opponents this season. When I hear about Michigan though, whether it's from Kirk Herbstreit or Robert Smith or Joey Galloway(a pattern emerges?), or any number of other ESPN or Big Ten analysts, I hear about how they haven't played anyone and how we won't know how good they really are until they play Michigan State, Iowa and Ohio State at the end of the year. 

For what it's worth, the combined record of those three teams at this point in the season is 9-4, with the Buckeyes being the only one undefeated. Both the Spartans and Hawkeyes have two losses, Iowa's both being at home and both of MSU's coming in conference. Meanwhile, the combined record of Ohio State's opponents this season is 8-10, including a 2-2 Oklahoma team still ranked 20th in the AP Poll and 22nd in the Coaches Poll. The OSU opponent with the best record right now is Tulsa at 3-1, who rebounded from their 48-3 humiliation in Columbus to beat North Carolina A&T by 37 points and then beat Fresno State in double overtime two weeks ago. 

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Seniors Jehu Chesson and Jake Butt and their leadership are a big part of the Wolverines' 5-0 start this season. 

The combined record of Michigan's opponents right now? 16-9, which includes two currently ranked teams that are both 4-1 in Colorado and Wisconsin. Colorado was unranked at the time Michigan beat them by 17 in Ann Arbor in Week 3, and given that the Wolverines came back from a 21-7 first quarter deficit to win that game going away, many in the nation questioned how good Michigan was after that, especially since Buffaloes starting QB Sefo Liufau got hurt in the third quarter, leaving many to question how different the game would have been had he been healthy. A week later their backup QB Steven Montez threw for 333 yards and three touchdowns at Oregon in a 41-38 win over the Ducks that raised some eyebrows in the Pac 12. This past weekend he threw for 293 yards and 3 scores against Oregon State in a 47-6 rout. 

Wisconsin of course, beat LSU and Michigan State and had one questionable comeback win against Georgia State at home before they were shut down in Ann Arbor. They'll have a bye week before hosting the Buckeyes in Madison, arguably Ohio State's toughest game of the season at this point, but you wouldn't know it listening to the praise for them. Which schedule sounds tougher: Bowling Green, Tulsa, Oklahoma and Rutgers? Or Hawaii, Central Florida, Colorado, Penn State and Wisconsin? Ok, neither is exactly a gauntlet but where the nation has a ton of questions about Michigan's strength of schedule, they have zero for Ohio State's at all and it's just as weak, if not weaker than Michigan's this season to this point. Even if you count this week's upcoming matchup between the Buckeyes and an Indiana team that just won the Brass Spittoon for the first time ever against Mark Dantonio, that's still not a great resume builder for OSU. 

Of course, the Buckeyes don't need resume builders. The benefit of the doubt is there. Every major projection at this point has them in the CFB playoff, ready to tangle with the likes of Alabama and Clemson for the national championship, no matter how weak their opponents have been to this point. 

Meanwhile in Ann Arbor, Michigan goes about its business, playing an efficient and sometimes prolific offensive attack and an absolutely stifling defensive unit, both of which have been tested just a bit more than the Buckeyes have at this point one could say. In the case of Clemson and Louisville at least they both at one point beat teams ahead of Michigan to jump in front of them. What's OSU's excuse? Who have they beaten that was better than Michigan? Oklahoma? Not right now. 

JT Barrett has thrown for 888 yards and 14 touchdowns this season, along with 205 yards rushing and 3 rushing touchdowns. 

So why is Ohio State getting this benefit of the doubt for their success that Michigan isn't getting? A few reasons: 

1 - OHIO STATE HAS WON A CFB NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP. It was two years ago and the only major starter left from that team is QB JT Barrett, who didn't play in the conference title game or the playoff because he got injured against Michigan, but people love to use the past when it suits their argument. They'll also tout last year, saying that OSU was one bad loss in the rain against Michigan State away from reaching the playoff again, as if that loss in November shouldn't have counted, even though it did. It's retroactive benefit of the doubt.

2 - URBAN MEYER. If Nick Saban is regarded as the best coach in college football because of his five national championships, four in the last seven years with Alabama, then Urban Meyer is considered the next closest with his two national championships at Florida and his one in Columbus two years ago, which included a playoff win against Alabama en route to winning it. This is the one point that is hard to argue because he's been there and done it multiple times. 

3 - 42-13. That was the score of the Ohio State-Michigan game last year. A complete and utter blowout from an angry Buckeye team fresh off of their CFB and Big Ten Championship game eliminating loss at home to the Spartans, against a rebuilding Michigan team that was injured and not as deep defensively as they are this season. No excuses permitted, the team would tell you that first. They got beat last year and it wasn't pretty. It's part of the reason why Don Brown was hired as the new defensive coordinator this season when DJ Durkin left for Maryland. It's the most recent set of highlights anyone has for a Michigan-Ohio State game and it's what the nation sees, fair or not when this comparison is made now between the two schools. Add to that the painful statistic of the Buckeyes winning 11 of the last 12 games in what used to be a really competitive rivalry, and you see where that benefit of the doubt really comes from in this argument. 

At the end of the day, it doesn't matter until November 28th who is really better between Michigan and Ohio State because all the guesswork in the world won't mean anything until it is proven on the field by either team. The thing is, we love to argue up until that point and so far the argument has been "Ohio State is so much better," when the numbers and the strength of schedule really don't support that at all. As much as we might all want to assume that Urban Meyer's spread offense led by a very talented upperclassman QB with a ton of "reloaded" younger players would simply steamroll over a team like Michigan, we won't know until the game hits at the end of the season, much like we won't know if Michigan's defense led by a senior-laden defensive front and secondary will crack the Ohio State offensive attack like an egg or not. The best we can say right now is that both teams are playing very well and there's a lot of season left to figure out who is going to win the Big Ten this season. 

Now if only the national media could start saying that. Especially those Buckeye alums all over the four-letter network. Oh well......

2016 Michigan Football Prediction (GAME BY GAME)

It's the most wonderful time of the year. No, not Christmas yet. College football season is upon us. 

Every fall, I get to embrace my greatest and most passionate sports fandom in my life: The Michigan Wolverines. I have bled maize and blue since I was four years old, loved the University of Michigan ever since, been to a number of games at The Big House as a fan and as a sportswriter covering the team for two seasons for The Michigan Times at UM-Flint, and even though I root for Michigan in every sport and competition it competes in, there's nothing like rooting for the football team. It is where the greatest passion for most Michigan fans is. 

That passion was......severely tested for seven years. 2008 to 2014 to be exact, though I believe that it started even sooner on November 17, 2006......the day that the program's legendary coach and patriarch Bo Schembechler died, just hours before undefeated #2 Michigan was set to play undefeated #1 Ohio State in a titanic end of the season matchup to determine the winner of the Big Ten and who would play for a national championship. 

With heavy hearts indeed, Michigan lost 42-39 that day, but they lost much more than just a game and a shot at a national championship. A year later after a lackluster 9-4 season that included what is known as the greatest college football upset of all-time, Appalachian State's 34-32 win over Michigan in Ann Arbor, longtime head coach Lloyd Carr retired, passing the coaching torch to Rich Rodriguez who came from West Virginia. 

In three seasons at Michigan he was 15-22, including two losing seasons where Michigan didn't make a bowl game, and in Rich Rod's final season in 2010 they were destroyed 52-14 by Mississippi State in the Gator Bowl. He was replaced by Brady Hoke, former Michigan defensive line coach under Lloyd Carr and then head coach at San Diego State. His four year record at Michigan was better, 31-20, but his teams got progressively worse each season going from an 11-2 record with a Sugar Bowl victory over Virginia Tech in 2011 to a 5-7 record in 2014 with no bowl appearance. 

To add insult to injury, Michigan was a combined 2-12 against hated rivals Michigan State and Ohio State. As a fanbase and a football program, we had reached our lowest point......so low that it took a home run hire, a true aligning of the stars to bring Jim Harbaugh in as head coach to give us hope again, and in one season he and his staff turned a 5-7 team in 2014 into a 10-3 team with a dominant Citrus Bowl win over Florida in 2015. Add to that a Top 5 recruiting class in 2016 that featured the unanimous #1 player in the country, defensive lineman Rashan Gary, and there's a reason why expectations are higher than they've been in a long time for Michigan fans. 

Which leads us to the 2016 season, set to start this Saturday at noon for Michigan at home. It holds a #7 preseason ranking in the Associated Press Poll and a #8 preseason ranking in the Coaches Poll. Many think the Wolverines are good enough to win the Big Ten and get into the College Football Playoff this season, while others, most notably Paul Finebaum of the SEC Network, think they could lose three to four games this season and be a complete bust. 

Without further ado, here's my official prediction on what Michigan football will do in 2016, game by game: 

HAWAII vs. MICHIGAN - September 3rd @ The Big House in Ann Arbor

I'm too paranoid as a fan to say that this will be the easiest opponent Michigan plays this season, but the Rainbow Warriors probably will be. They're already 0-1 after losing to Cal by 20 last week and it's Michigan's home opener. Word is they are itching to get the season started and the coaching staff is not letting anyone get complacent. Expect Michigan to put this one on ice pretty early. MICHIGAN WINS.

CENTRAL FLORIDA vs. MICHIGAN - September 10th @ The Big House in Ann Arbor

I'm sure Central Florida head coach Scott Frost will try to have some surprises planned for Michigan in this game, but this one shouldn't be much different than Hawaii. Neither team is from a Power 5 conference. MICHIGAN WINS.

COLORADO vs. MICHIGAN - September 17th @ The Big House in Ann Arbor

Finally a Power 5 school, formerly of the Big 12 now from the PAC-12. If you're watching this one at home, get ready to see the 1993 Kordell Stewart to Michael Westbrook Hail Mary highlight played at least one thousand times during the game week and into the game itself. This Buffaloes team is nowhere near that, though. They haven't made a bowl game since 2007 and haven't had a winning season since 2005. Their current head coach, Mike MacIntyre is 10-27 in three seasons with Colorado. He's likely fired if they don't make a bowl game this year. Nothing is impossible, but I wouldn't count on a monumental upset here. MICHIGAN WINS. 

PENN STATE vs. MICHIGAN - September 24th @ The Big House in Ann Arbor

This might also be a "warm-seat" year for Nittany Lions head coach James Franklin. He's only in the third year of his contract and Penn State has gone bowling, but a pair of 7-6 seasons isn't going to cut it in Happy Valley. He couldn't even beat Brady Hoke's Wolverines in 2014. Still, Michigan had to earn its win last year at Penn State with a ton of sacks and QB pressure through a pretty bad offensive line. The Nittany Lions are supposed to have a new offense this year with a new QB under center as well, but Michigan's defensive front might just be licking their chops to see if they can get more sacks this year than last year. This one will be a bit closer, especially being the first Big Ten game of the season, but it should still be a good day for the Wolverines. MICHIGAN WINS.

WISCONSIN vs. MICHIGAN - October 1st @ The Big House in Ann Arbor

This one won't be as easy as people think. The Badgers have always prided themselves on running the football and being physical with a QB that manages the game well and doesn't make too many mistakes. It's really no different with Paul Chryst at the helm for his second year as head coach of Wisconsin football. The Badgers went 10-3 last year too in the Big Ten West Division in eerily similar fashion to Michigan with a loss to Alabama in Week 1, a low scoring defensive loss to eventual division winner Iowa in October, and another defensive loss later at home to Northwestern. They edged USC in the Qualcomm Bowl 23-21. It's going to come down to how good and healthy Michigan's defense is at this point in the season. Wisconsin is going to try to match their physicality but just like Michigan, they will be breaking in a new QB as well in Bart Houston. In a game of who is going to outmuscle and outlast the other, I'll go with the home team despite the fact that Wisconsin was 4-1 on the road last year......same as Michigan was. I'll likely be nervous watching this one. MICHIGAN WINS. 

MICHIGAN vs. RUTGERS - October 8th @ High Point Solutions Stadium in Piscataway, New Jersey

If not for a Janarion Grant kickoff return for a touchdown in last year's game, Michigan would have won by exactly 40 points. Rutgers is rebuilding with former Ohio State assistant coach Chris Ash leading the team, but his presence combined with this being Michigan's first road game of the year after five weeks in a row at home should make this one a bit stickier as well, especially if it becomes a night game. Even so, this is a game where talent level and experience should win the day and the die hard Rutgers fans might really be upset when a Michigan team full of highly talented New Jersey defectors including Jabrill Peppers and Rashan Gary beat them on their home ground. The team gets its first road win of 2016. MICHIGAN WINS. 

ILLINOIS at MICHIGAN - October 22nd @ The Big House in Ann Arbor

This one will be interesting if for no other reason than to see what former NFL head coach Lovie Smith does now in charge of the Illini. He's familiar with Jim Harbaugh's work at San Francisco of course and has similar extensive NFL knowledge that you'd have to believe he's passing onto the Illinois players. The thing is, this is another program in the middle of a rebuild but in this case, the last two rebuilds under Ron Zook and Tim Beckmann didn't really work. Zook had one nine-win season with Illinois in 2007 and then didn't win more than seven games in one season in the next four years, which he did twice but missed bowl games the other two years. Beckmann was even worse, going 12-25 and failing to make a bowl game in three seasons before being replaced by Bill Cubit, who went 5-7 last year. It'll be interesting to see what Lovie does in his first year, but coming back home after a bye week should make this one pretty standard for the more talented and experienced Wolverines. MICHIGAN WINS. 

MICHIGAN at MICHIGAN STATE - October 29th @ Spartan Stadium in East Lansing, Michigan

This game has surely been circled since the dropped punt last year that gave the Spartans their seventh win in the last eight years over Michigan. Sickening to think about. Head coach Mark Dantonio is 7-2 against Michigan in his career as Michigan State's head coach, but he really should be 6-3 because that dropped punt is the only reason they won the game last year. Sure it sounds like sour grapes, but the Spartans needed 328 yards passing from Connor Cook and 132 yards receiving from Aaron Burbridge just to put them in a position to be down two points with ten seconds to go before the fluke of all flukes happened. Both Cook and Burbridge, two of MSU's best offensive weapons are gone now, and so are offensive linemen Jack Conklin and Jack Allen and defensive lineman Shilique Calhoun. With those players, Michigan State had 58 yards rushing against Michigan last year and held Michigan to 62 yards rushing. They're all gone, while Michigan returns their entire offensive and defensive lines minus Graham Glasgow and Willie Henry, not to mention all major offensive and defensive playmakers aside from Jake Rudock.

For once, Michigan is going into this game with an experience and potential talent advantage, which a lot of times can mean nothing in a heated rivalry game but MSU has enjoyed that advantage for awhile now and it will be nice to have that table turned this season for once. Michigan had this team dead to rights last year and beat itself in the final ten seconds. Don't expect that to happen again this time, even in East Lansing which is technically a road game, but is literally just down the road. Both Dantonio and Harbaugh will have their teams ready to play a tough, physical game and that alone could make it another close one, but here's hoping that it isn't a close one and that it's in favor of the good guys from Ann Arbor. No one is going to take their foot off the gas pedal here, especially Harbaugh and Michigan after what happened last season. This is where the Wolverines finally take the state back. MICHIGAN WINS. 

MARYLAND vs. MICHIGAN - November 5th @ The Big House in Ann Arbor

This one is going to be interesting for a few reasons, not the least of which is former Michigan defensive coordinator and current Maryland head coach DJ Durkin. You can bet he will instill a consistent defensive intensity within this Terrapins team and while he's not privy to Michigan defensive coordinator Don Brown's schemes, he does know a lot of those players on that defense. The question is, a year after being shutout at home by the Wolverines, does Maryland have the talent to beat them on the road? Doubtful, even with Will Likely as an all-world receiver and kick returner and Perry Hills leading the offense. The Terps are not going to get shutout again that's for sure, but in Week 9 facing a hopefully undefeated and confident Michigan team at The Big House, this one shouldn't be in too much doubt at all. MICHIGAN WINS. 

MICHIGAN vs. IOWA - November 12th @ Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City, Iowa

This game flat out scares me. Seriously. I've been a Michigan fan for far too long to forget the goofy things that have happened in games against Iowa, especially at Kinnick Stadium. This is also a team that just like Michigan is returning a good amount of players from the team that won the Big Ten West last year and took MSU right to the end in the conference championship game, except that unlike the Wolverines, Iowa brings back its QB, CJ Beathard. He's good, especially in that offense that head coach Kirk Ferentz likes to run. All-world cornerback Desmond King is coming back as well and he's no one that any quarterback should be throwing in the general direction of whatsoever. It's really easy to say that last year was an aberration for the Hawkeyes and they will go back to normal this year and underachieve in the Big Ten West, but I don't believe that at all. This is going to a be tight, close game that goes down to the wire and some craziness is going to happen especially since it's at night. If not for last year's cardiac arrest inducing wins at Minnesota on Halloween and Indiana a few weeks later, I don't know that I would give the Wolverines the edge here, but those players came up big when they needed it most in those games last year at night and I think with that under their belt and potentially even more talent on their side this season, they can get the job done no matter how nerve-wracking the 4th quarter is going to be. Michigan will EARN this game for sure. MICHIGAN WINS. 

INDIANA at MICHIGAN - November 19th @ The Big House in Ann Arbor

Speaking of the Hoosiers, Michigan has been involved in some definite craziness against them in the last few years, whether it was the 63-47 Xbox shootout they played against each other in Ann Arbor in 2013 or last year's 48-41 double overtime thriller at Memorial Stadium in Bloomington. In both cases Michigan won and has done so against Indiana for the last 28 years in a row, going all the way back to 1987 when Indiana beat the Wolverines 14-10 the year after Jim Harbaugh left for the NFL as a player. Since then, Michigan is 20-0 against the Hoosiers and that's likely to continue here. Indiana is sure to score some points as they have done against quality teams before, but the 41 points the Hoosiers scored against Michigan last season, which included 307 yards rushing came a week after defensive tackle Ryan Glasgow went down with an injury, which meant that combined with defensive tackle Bryan Mone's preseason injury, the Wolverines were without their best nose tackles to stop the run and the loss of Mario Ojemudia on that defensive front helped Indiana as well. Provided they can stay relatively healthy, Michigan's defensive line is deeper than last season's was for certain and with Indiana breaking in a new QB to replace Nate Sudfeld, the passing attack may not be lights out either. Meanwhile, the Michigan offense should be able to put up enough points against a still-maligned Hoosier defense. MICHIGAN WINS. 

MICHIGAN vs. OHIO STATE - November 26th @ The Horseshoe in Columbus, Ohio

This one kills me. Seriously, it's going to hurt for me to say this but this is a really tough one for me to call because I'm not comfortable picking Michigan to win this one. It's not that I don't think they can or that they will, I just see too many question marks that I don't have with those other games. Urban Meyer is a snake in the grass but he's one of the best coaches in college football and the only one currently coaching other than Nick Saban that has won multiple national championships, two at Florida in 2006 and 2008 and one at OSU in 2014. He doesn't rebuild, he just reloads teams with the talent he gets, which is why despite losing 11 starters on both sides of the ball from last year, people still think the Buckeyes are the favorite to win the Big Ten. I hate that. I really, really hate that. It's a valid point though, and despite losing so much talent all around, the one guy they don't lose is QB J.T. Barrett, who now isn't competing with anyone for that starting QB job. He'll need a new running back to step up and help him, likely Mike Weber, but he's going to be dynamic as he always is and in Michigan's case, we've got to know if the linebackers are up to the challenge of dealing with that power spread offense.

Make no mistake, after last year's disastrous 42-13 score, Jim Harbaugh hired Don Brown and his scheme specifically for this matchup. Under no circumstances is what happened last year allowable to continue and while it likely won't, we just don't know how this defense will perform against what will be the most dynamic offense they face all season, under the command of one of the best coaches in the country. Ugh, I hate saying that crap. Offensively, I think Michigan can hold their own without having to worry about Joey Bosa, Adolphus Washington or Eli Apple to terrorize them anymore. Sure the Buckeyes will have new studs on defense, but Michigan's offense will be much more experienced. The question is can they stop Barrett and that offense? I wish I could say yes for certain, but I just don't know and if I don't know, I can't say for certain that it's a win. Besides, picking a team to go undefeated in a year like this, while I pray to God that it happens, is just not a favorable thing to do in my opinion. I hate, hate, hate, hate with a burning passion the thought of dealing with yet another year of losing to these SOB's, but I don't know if Michigan is there yet. I really hope they are and I'm wrong as hell on this one.

BIG TEN CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - December 3rd @ Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana

This is going to greatly depend on how the season goes for the Buckeyes and the rest of the Big Ten. If OSU loses twice in conference before playing Michigan, then even a Michigan loss to them would mean Michigan at 11-1 would go to Indy, which is entirely possible considering how much the Buckeyes have lost in experience and talent and could struggle at times during the season. If Michigan were to lose their one game against OSU, as much as it would sting I would gladly get over it as best as I could to enjoy a trip to the Big Ten title game. The Wolverines have never played in it before and haven't won a conference title in 12 years, which is far too long. They really NEED to get here, even with an 11-1 record because a Big Ten title in Ann Arbor is sorely required, so here's hoping my OSU prediction is wrong or that Michigan would still go to Indy anyway even if it's right. 

So there you have it. My prediction and minimum expectation for Michigan football this season is 11-1. Anything less than that for me, even 10-2, is a disappointment in my eyes, especially if both of those losses come to the rivals again. In Year 2 of the Harbaugh Era, you need to beat one of them without fail. I made my case for why MSU is the more likely target to take down this season. 

11 wins for this team may seem very lofty with questions at QB and linebacker, not to mention the unpredictable nature of injuries that befall every team in the country. The thing is last year I said that Michigan would finish with a record no worse than 8-4 and that was because I felt they were an 8-4 team in 2014 talent-wise that couldn't put it together with substandard coaching. With Harbaugh and his staff, eight wins was the floor for me. Anything less would have been disappointing and I said that while so many others said 7-5, 6-6 and even 5-7 for a second year in a row, thinking that the team just didn't have any talent. 

Well, they won 10 games, two ahead of my expectation, and when you do that then you raise the expectations for the following season. 11 is greater than 10, so there you have it. This Michigan team has the coaching, the talent and the schedule necessary to have a special year and here's hoping they put one together for us. We've been waiting a long time for it, that's for sure. 

GO BLUE!

What everyone is missing about Jim Harbaugh's "distractions"

For more than a year now, I've seen a lot of opinions about Michigan Football head coach Jim Harbaugh, many of them having little to do with his football acumen or success as a head coach. It's not that people haven't mentioned his coaching record and abilities at all, it's just that the offseason exploits always seem to overshadow his coaching pedigree. 

First it was the "Gatorade in his cereal" story, a headline that ran rampant across media outlets last year because of one quote from Jim's son Jay Harbaugh, the team's tight end coach, during an interview for mgoblue.com with Ed Kengerski. 

Then there was the ladies he assisted after a car wreck on I-94. Then it was all of the publicity and other stories we heard about how he was shaping the image of the program and his recruiting tactics, which included playing Peru ball shirtless with a group of satellite campers in Alabama, climbing trees and sleeping at a recruit's house, just to name a few things. 

Then came Twitter. When Harbaugh officially joined it under the @CoachJim4UM account he had thousands of followers within minutes, myself included. To think that his Twitter account would become a source of controversial news content was not something I or many others could have anticipated, and yet that's exactly where we are today having witnessed Harbaugh use Twitter in the last year to rankle the feathers of Ohio State both indirectly and directly, take shots at several SEC coaches including the King of Tuscaloosa himself Nick Saban, and most recently to take a shot at sports radio host Jim Rome after Rome publicly blasted him on his radio show for abruptly leaving a press conference after refusing to answer any more questions about a pair of currently suspended players. 

The actions of Jim Harbaugh on Twitter and in the offseason have been center stage for sports news every summer now since he was hired at Michigan, and some, not all but some people are questioning what it really means if anything. After all, winning the offseason with top recruiting classes, dominating headlines for almost any reason and blasting your critics on Twitter doesn't translate to wins on the field, which is what Harbaugh and Michigan will ultimately be judged on. In fact, there are those who think this "snarky" act by Harbaugh will soon wear thin and brings unneeded and unnecessary attention to Harbaugh while he and his assistants ready their squad for the 2016 season. 

The thing is, that "snarky" act is exactly part of the team's preparation......at least that's what it looks like to me. 

I've heard from several people in the past year that Harbaugh's "act" is phony and only intended to draw more attention to himself because he wants the spotlight on him as much as possible, which is why he does the satellite camps, wears the different jerseys, does the rap videos and fires quips on Twitter without having won a single thing at Michigan yet. Heather Dinich of ESPN a few months ago told a Detroit sports radio station that Jim Harbaugh needs to start winning football games instead of Twitter battles. That's true, Heather......and no one knows that more than Jim Harbaugh. 

In the recent case of the two suspended players, Ahmir Mitchell and Shelton Johnson, Harbaugh and the Michigan staff are adamant that it's an internal matter that they will deal with. Naturally the local sports media, looking to do their jobs and dig as deep as they can to get the story, pressed on further about it and prompted Harbaugh's abrupt exit, which Jim Rome and many others labeled as wrong, uncalled for and thin-skinned. 

So the story on the day of the "storming out" was the storming out, and the story on Day 2 was Jim Rome's blast and general criticism of Harbaugh's decision at the press conference in this overly-whiny rant:

 Then Harbaugh tweets this about Rome that evening: 

The video linked in the tweet is a classic for sports fans: a 90's era ESPN2 interview between Rome and Jim Everett that ends with a table being flipped in Rome's direction because he wouldn't stop calling Jim Everett "Chris," even after being warned not to do it anymore. 

So this becomes the story on Day 3, complete with Rome's weak sauce retort:

That of course is in reference to the score of last year's Michigan-Ohio State game, which is weak sauce because Rome is a Cal-Santa Barbara alum, not a Buckeye alum, so he's got no reason to cite that score other than being a complete troll. I digress......or maybe I don't, because with everyone talking about this in relation to Michigan and Jim Harbaugh in the middle of Fall camp, do you know what we are NOT talking about at all anymore? 

The two suspended players, Mitchell and Johnson. 

Which is exactly what Harbaugh wanted in the first place, for there to be no attention on them. 

Harbaugh has been quoted before as saying he doesn't want injury reports and early buzz on players to get out and put pressure on the young kids while they are competing. This is part of his "submarine" strategy to keep everything internal. That's not simply to keep the opposition from learning anything about the team, it's about protecting his athletes from outside pressures and attention. He wants them focused on the task at hand without the big distractions playing a part in it. 

This is why he manipulates the media into putting the spotlight on him, while his players take care of business, suspended or not, and it works. Whereas everyone would have been trying to track down the two suspended players and get as much as they can on them, Harbaugh's "storming off" and subsequent response to Rome has now created a three-day story that almost completely ignores those players and focuses squarely on the coach, who at age 52 can handle the media, obviously. 

This is like a better, more calculated version of Oklahoma State head coach Mike Gundy's "I'm a man, I'm 40" rant, only instead of taking an entire post-game press conference to blast the media for what he considered a less than truthful report about one of his players, Harbaugh just forced the media to talk about him for two days instead of his players by being himself at that press conference. 

Make no mistake, as much as Harbaugh is thoroughly enjoying his job, this is part of what he does every time a situation like this comes up. Maybe he is like Saban and plenty of other big time coaches and doesn't have the thick skin people think he should, but he's also got a calculated reason for why he does what he does and this is part of it, to deflect attention from his time. Now, in preparation for the 2016 season the players can focus while their head coach deals with the media circus. It won't always happen that way, but it will if Harbaugh can help it. 

This tells me more than anything that his focus is exactly where it should be, on his team and his football program. Those who consider his act fake and attention-grabbing are gravely mistaken. He is a different personality that is not above having fun and engaging in publicity, but at the end of the day his actions, however grandiose and distracting they may be to the general public will always come back to "The Team, The Team, The Team." 

VICTORS VERSE: Michigan recruits looking at "Life after Football"

Kai-Leon Herbert: 6'4", 279lbs. and headed to Ann Arbor, Michigan instead of staying in the state of Florida. 

The Michigan Wolverines football program currently holds 18 commitments for its 2017 incoming class, and if you're a stargazer it's literally 50-50, as in nine three-star recruits and nine four-star recruits. 

The most recent came today when four-star OL Kai-Leon Herbert from Florida announced his commitment to Michigan via Walking Dead-style zombie attack video on Bleacher Report: 

B/R Commitment Week: 4-star OT @KHerb17 fights off zombies #BRCommitmentWeekhttps://t.co/9I9r12rAlY

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) July 6, 2016

Ultimately, it's another huge recruiting win for Michigan as they add another 4-star talent from SEC country, exactly what Nick Saban at Alabama and the rest of the SEC coaches didn't want to happen. 

But let's talk about WHY Herbert chose Michigan. Here is a quote from a story on TheWolverine.com about why he committed there: 

Life after football. This isn't the first time we have heard a big recruit say this about Michigan football either. Just last month four-star DT Aubrey Solomon stunned the nation and the state of Alabama with his commitment to Michigan. Here's what he had to say about it: 

So that's two four-star caliber lineman on both sides of the ball, playing down south and seemingly destined to end up on an SEC roster somewhere, both deciding to come hundreds of miles north to play in Ann Arbor because of "life after football." 

Doesn't that seem a little different for how we believe recruits and their families operate? We've seen it time and time again where young players and their families think he is destined to go pro and make a fortune in the NFL, and they want to go to the best school that will put them in place to do that. Until recently, that was a lock for Alabama, Florida, Georgia and a whole host of southern schools that acted as feeder programs for the NFL. 

Aubrey Solomon (left) and Otis Reece (right) both committed to Michigan on the same day, despite hailing from Alabama, the heart of SEC country. 

Something has changed, and it may have started back in February when DL Rashan Gary from Paramus Catholic in New Jersey, the undisputed No. 1 high school player in the nation, made his choice to come to Ann Arbor instead of Clemson and a whole host of other big name schools that wanted him. The easy answer would be Jim Harbaugh and the Michigan Wolverines staff, who not even two years into their regime have completely transformed, revitalized and restored the luster of the Michigan Football program. 

Let's go deeper than that, though. Here's what Gary said after he chose the Wolverines months ago: 

Now, he may not have used the words "life after football," but you get the same impression from him when he talks about "a lifetime goal" and "to make sure he provides for his family." Odds are, with his talent and adding three to four years of development at Michigan, he'll be doing that as an NFL player, but Gary is one of many young football players that have talked about family, academic strength and building a great life outside of football, all major points that the Michigan coaching staff have seemed to hammer home with these kids. 

Rashan Gary's decision to come to Michigan might have been just the first in a trend of highly-ranked recruits choosing Jim Harbaugh and the Wolverines over the SEC for reasons outside of just football. 

And this is where the genius of Jim Harbaugh comes into play. Not only is he a 15-year NFL veteran as a player with four years of successful NFL head coaching experience and approaching a decade of collegiate level head coaching experience, but he's also a married father of six, soon to be seven children. Family is priority one for him. His son Jay coaches Michigan's tight end position. His brother John, head coach of the Baltimore Ravens in the NFL is around the program. Their father Jack along with legendary Michigan head coach Bo Schembechler, may he rest in peace, taught these lessons of family and life importance to Jim and he is now translating this genuine approach to his job as head football coach. It shows no more evidently now than on the recruiting trail. 

Harbaugh and his coaching staff have more than just years of NFL experience and connections to offer a player, they also offer a genuine concern and value for the player's well-being, with regard to his family, his academics and his team. Now, you could find families and players that will tell you Nick Saban, Kirby Smart at Georgia, Dabo Swinney at Clemson and even Urban Meyer at Ohio State have told kids the same thing, but you have to wonder how genuine that sentiment is with respect to what Harbaugh and his staff are saying at Michigan. In a era when football is under scrutiny for its safety and other issues and families just want the best for their son's success, it has to be refreshing for them to hear Harbaugh and his staff's commitment to that on all levels for their players. 

Maybe that's why they are making the choice to commit to the Maize and Blue. It's a long way to National Signing Day, but it's a very good sign. 

VICTORS VERSE: Embracing the "Harbaugh Hype"

In just a year and a half on the job as Michigan's head football coach, Jim Harbaugh has made no guarantees, no bold proclamations or grand predictions. He's made everyone else do it for him. 

I've been a Michigan fan since my mom and dad took me to Central Campus in Ann Arbor when I was four years old. I've been watching Michigan football my whole life and I have never been as excited for it as am right now as a fan. 

That's because for the first time ever, Michigan is looking to sit at the "Big Person's Table," as head football coach Jim Harbaugh made clear last season. That was a statement he made before Fall camp started in 2015. Months later he had done what many had thought unthinkable: take a 5-win team that couldn't beat Rutgers or Maryland in 2014 and win 10 games the next season, punctuated by a 41-7 Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl blowout win over Florida on January 1st. 

Every Michigan fan knows this, just as much as we all know about Michigan's Top 5 recruiting class that signed a month later, complete with the unanimous #1 player in the nation, defensive tackle Rashan Gary. 

Since all of that, the hype for Michigan football has done a lot of things. Slow down isn't one of them. In fact, it's gotten faster. A LOT faster: 

That's Michigan with the second best odds to win the national championship in 2016, with only defending champion Alabama ahead of them. 

That's ESPN putting them fourth in the nation in the "Way Too Early Top 25."

And that's Athlon Sports ranking them fifth in the 2016 preseason. For the record, the other four teams on this list have all either made the CFB Playoff or won the national championship in the CFB format. 

That is very high praise for the Wolverines coming into 2016, and on the one hand you could understand it since they return the most starters on offense and defense in the Big Ten East division, won 10 games last year and set the bar pretty high for this season. 

A lot of people though, mostly Ohio State Buckeyes and Michigan State Spartan fans, think the hype is unbearably unwarranted: 

Ok, while I understand some irritation from rival fanbases and others who are not Michigan fans, and even some irritation from Michigan fans who are uncomfortable with too much hype to begin the season, here's the bottom line: GET OVER IT. 

Does Michigan football have a gargantuan amount of hype going into this college football season? Yeah it does, but notice how NONE of it is coming from the Michigan football program. Harbaugh has predicted nothing. His coaches have predicted nothing. The players have predicted nothing. In fact, all any of them have said is something along the lines of "we don't listen to hype, we are ready to work and build on last year." How is any of this hype their fault? 

Jim Harbaugh and Nick Saban have been battling each other in the press and on Twitter because Saban made a statement about Jim's satellite camps becoming a haven for breaking recruiting rules, a comment that Harbaugh found hypocritical since Saban's Alabama recently fired one of its football coaches for recruiting violations. 

Alabama football head coach Nick Saban recently went on a tirade about the satellite camp issue again, right on the eve of Michigan's huge 41-camp summer tour that will last the whole month and go across Planet Earth, literally. Harbaugh took issue with Saban's comments about how satellite camps could lead to major recruiting violations, especially since Saban fired one of his coaches recently, Bo Davis, for recruting violations. 

So Saban rants, Harbaugh responds on Twitter, Saban fires back about how he doesn't care what Harbaugh says and once again, the national media has focused its attention on Michigan, as it has almost every time Harbaugh has tweeted about what a coach said about his methods. 

Is that really Harbaugh building a huge hype train for Michigan football without having won a single game against a Top Ten school or rival yet? Or is it just Harbaugh saying what we all know to be true: that Saban is a gigantic hypocrite who only challenges satellite camps because he doesn't want Michigan or anyone else taking any of his players from Alabama? I'd say the latter. 

Ultimately, we as Michigan fans should embrace this hype with open arms instead of being afraid of it. Of course the team needs to win on the field, as ESPN's Heather Dinich has stated so eloquently: 

You know who agrees with that? Jim Harbaugh. So does his team and the majority if not the entire Michigan fanbase. Does that mean that we are supposed to quietly shoot down the media hype and be a good little soldier of a fanbase and program like Saban and the SEC would like us to do? Well, fat chance of that happening. Top tier programs, Alabama included, get hype every year. They don't ask for it, it comes with the program and the tradition of winning. Just because the hype for Harbaugh and Michigan is rolling like a freight train off of one 10-win season in which no rivals or Top Ten opponents were defeated doesn't mean we should just shake it off or downplay it. Michigan SHOULD have high expectations and the program and the fanbase should embrace this hype. Do we not think that we are worth it? Maybe we don't. 

But Jim Harbaugh does and his team does, and while they haven't asked for this media attention in the slightest, they are confident that they can live up to it. If we want Michigan to sit at the Big Person's Table every year, then we need to man up as a fanbase and embrace this kind of hype, because it's not going away anytime soon.